March 8th Severe Weather Discussion

Because I feel like I've already wasted enough of my life over this event, I'm going to keep it simple.

I don't see anything remotely salvageable about Sunday the 7th, so let's just file that one. Now, March 8th...

Oh, this one is agonizing! Finally the models aligned ... and then they all took a collective snakeHIcross on the setup. It was certainly worse this morning, but looks a tad better tonight with the 0Z runs. I'm going to ignore the GooF and present to you some parameters from the NAM:(click on the image for a larger version)

Here we have 500mb/sfcTd/ThetaE/CAPE/CIN.

I see three main areas of action.

1) The "cold core" (Meade, Kansas)
Shear is great, instability and moisture are okay. Cloudcover and previous precipitation could be a problem.


2) The "boundary" (Texola, TX/OK)
Shear and instability are good enough for supes. Inhibition could be an issue with relatively warm Pacific air mainlining over from the west. The area of action looks rather narrow as well. The composite reflectivity is generating a "cell" in that area.


3) The "zone unknown".
Well, it's just further south and I'm not going to make that trip and don't know anyone from these parts that will, so let's just pretend it's not there.


Both of the first two areas are worth watching and you can bet I'll be up staring at the 12Z runs in the morning. Given tonight's parameters, I'd be at least up for the cold core setup. We'll see what temptation brings in the morning.

Dann

March 5, 7-9 Chase Forecast Thursday Update

March 5th
My forecast remains unchanged. Please see previous forecast for details. Here's what the 4.0KM WRF NMM precip forecast has for 0Z (5PM MST):


You know, this really makes me cry. I've been monitoring this in the models for the last week or so and was just unable to secure the day off from work. I WAS able to get a couple days off early next week for the "larger" system coming out of the mountains. There is been a lot of inconsistency in the models on this one, especially with the GFS which seems to shift placement by thousands of miles every 12 hours. Tune in tomorrow morning to see what happens next. And with that:

March 7-8
I don't want to talk about it.

Dann.

Severe Weather/Chase Forecast March 5, 7-8

Friday, March 5th
I have been watching this shortwave (which at this point is a bit more than a shortwave) coming through in the March4-5 time period (according to the GFS/ensemble) for more than a week now. Originally, it looked as if the best energy would come out in the panhandles. Moisture looked meager at best but there was just enough instability and wind shear to get something on the low-end of severe going. Anyway, now the GFS and NAM have pretty much come into agreement on the solution of the system as it ejects. It looks like a surface low should form up in northeastern Colorado with elongated troughing on the lee side of the Rockies from Wyoming through southern Colorado. Moisture return on the NAM is a bit higher than the GFS and I still question the values, but we'll see. Both models have dryline near the Colorado-Kansas border and slowly push it eastward as the day progresses. I don't doubt that we'll see some elevated convection along the Footies and the Palmer during the afternoon but any decent, surface-based convection will center along the convergence of the dryline. Available energy may top 500J/kg and there will certainly be enough lift for storms. The shear profiles on the soupy-side support rotating updrafts, so I wouldn't be *surprised* to see a severe report or two, be that a brief tornado or some hail or maybe some wind late late as the shorty ejects. I would actually like to chase this setup (call it early-season exuberance) but I am unable to secure the necessary time off of work. I thought I might be able to squeak out at 3PM,but given the models' push to have the moisture discontinuity out in KS, I actually don't think that would give me enough time. So, I'll watch. The NAM's reflectivity parameter shows an MCS-ish conglomeration after dark, which I can see given the ejection of the (short)wave from the mountains.

If anyone is heading out and needs a bit of nowcasting, let me know. Here's a bit of a mesoscale target forecast for 5PM MST on Friday:


Sunday-Monday, March 7-8
The GFS and ECMWF are still not aligned on this setup, the ECMWF being a bit behind the GooF still. Can I just say that this one has been chaotic? Run to run consistency just hasn't really been there, which makes it tough too since a nice deep trough like this (with moisture ahead of it) really starts to pique interest.

Anyway, let's talk about the GFS. Synoptically, the trough starts to eject from the mountains on Sunday with 50-60kt jet creeping up the high plains. By 12Z on Monday, the closed upper level low finally appears in the OK panhandle. At this time, the trough stops digging and completely levels out, the jet into it becoming zonal. By 0Z Tuesday (Monday night), the upper low is sitting over eastern Kansas while, as the jet blasts zonally through Oklahoma.

At the surface, the LLJ kicks back in by Saturday night and starts to advect a lot of moisture up onto the high plains. As the trough emerges, a surface low forms along the Palmer Divide in Eastern Colorado. As time passes, the surface low heads southeast and is already stacked by 0Z Tuesday.

As of now, Monday looks a lot more boring than it did this morning, but Sunday holds *a little* promise (about as much or slightly more than Friday). The model resolves a bit of instability (500J/kg-ish) along the dryline from Colorado all the way down into Texas. The best instability is found in the Lamesa-Midland area at 0Z on Monday and there is equivalent wind shear (as compared to a more northern target) and better moisture.

So, 96 hours out, I've put up a comparison of what I believe to be the northern and southern targets. (Lamar, Colorado / Midland, Texas)

Panel left to right:
- 500mb winds/heights
- SFC dewpoints, winds, mslp
- CAPE (max 0-70agl)
- CIN (max 0-70agl)
- Lifted Index, mslp


Lamar, Colorado sounding (0Z Monday)


Midland, Texas sounding (0Z Monday)

Finally, on Monday, I've really lost any hope that anything aside from a marginal cold core event will unfold. I'm sure well see some scattered sub-severe convection move through Texas into the jungle, but none of it looks all that great. There is talk about a cold core event in Kansas and that may bear watching, but with diffuse surface boundaries and the surface low south of the 500mb low, it's definitely not a *classic* setup More info on Cold Core setups

I think that will be it for tonight. I'll try and update tomorrow, especially on Friday's event and definitely expect an update on Sunday's event Friday (if not tomorrow as well.

Dann.

Graphics imported from twisterdata.com

Meet Me At The Oasis

Ingredients for a thunderstorm:

Moisture, instability & lift.

0Z Monday (Sunday night at 5PM MDT) SFC Td, CAPE, 500mb winds

So, I chased some weak convection out on the plains in January, but finally it looks as if the first *real* chase is upon us. The GooF has been consistent with a nice trough digging through the Rockies next weekend. The ECMWF is still a touch behind the GooF here, but it's getting closer to alignment. As of now, this certainly looks to be a chaseable situation and the if I had to commit based on today's information, I would be in. So, we'll be watching as the days click closer and the models hopefully align. Right now, NW Kansas looks great, but it seems that in the past couple of years, these early setups seem to head a bit south and a bit slower as the time gets closer. So it wouldn't surprise me if we end up a bit further south and a day later! But we'll see!

... it's time to dust out those cobwebs. Let the circus begin.

Dann.

The GooF Giveth; The GooF Taketh Away

I was going to update tonight about the GFS (or the GooF as I like to call it) hinting at a nice setup on the Southern Plains come next Thursday. But... the ensuing 18Z and 0Z runs have destroyed what originally was there. So, with that, I'll share a photo of the cold winter that still embraces me here.




Serves me right for getting excited! Still watching that time-frame, though... so we'll see.

Review: Lubacca 2009 Ridonkulous

Disclaimer: I am a bit biased here as Tony is a good friend of mine and I'm seen gratuitously throughout a couple chapters of the video.

I finally got a chance to watch Tony Laubach's Lubacca 2009 Ridonkulous tonight. If you like tornadoes, you will like this DVD! Tony seems to have a bloodhound's nose when it comes to rooting out a tube. In the chapters where you don't find a tornado, the action is usually filled with fun chaser antics or ridiculous (ridonkulous, if you will) amounts of hail.

The DVD covers the following dates:

February 8 – New Mexico Severe Storms
March 7 – Kansas Severe Storms
March 21 – Colorado LP Supercell
April 26 – Oklahoma Tornadoes
April 29 – Texas Tornadoes
June 5 – Amazing Wyoming Tornado
June 10 – Surprise Kansas Tornad
June 13 – Colorado Mega Hailstorm
June 17 – Nebraska Tornado Outbreak
July 17 – Destructive Colorado Hailstorm


If you follow Tony, you also know that he was featured along with the TWISTEX crew on Discovery Channel's Storm Chasers. Several of the the chapters cover additional footage that makes a fine aside for the series. Other chapters (chases not covered through the show) tend to show the lighter side of chasing the High Plains of Colorado. It was a pleasure for me to be along with Tony on a couple of these chases and this exemplifies the sociel nature of the good ol' Colorado storm chasing community.

Technically, the editing is impressive and keeps the viewer interested. The music is subtle and adds to the drama of the scenes without going over the top. It is very obvious that Tony put a lot of effort into making this DVD and his efforts were worth it.

So what are you waiting for? Order yourself a copy here:

http://www.tornadoeskick.com/video/dvdlubacca/dvd2009

Dann

ChaserCon 2010

I am exhausted.

For the fifth year in a row, I attended the National Storm Chaser Convention here in Denver. This year would mark the 12th annual convention, organized by veteran storm chasers Tim Samaras and Roger Hill. The Chaser Convention has always provided a great opportunity to expand one's knowledge and network with other chasers.

This year, I figured since many other chasers would be in town, I would organize a Convergence! the night before the convention began. (Convergence! is a gathering of storm chasers, meteorologists, and other interested in weather that I started a bit over a year ago with the intention of bringing together several groups of my friends that all had 'weather' as a common denominator) Though there was a bit of a snafu with the location, I was happy to have thirty people in attendance and we all had a pretty good time.

The convention began on Friday night with an icebreaker which we made last well past the scheduled time at the hotel bar and a subsequent late night journey to Denny's.

Many of us woke up the next morning a little worse for wear but Jon Davie's opening talk was enough to put the pep in me. I always enjoy reading his write-ups of significant and sometimes surprising weather events and his talk seemed to carry that same edge. Tim Marshall followed and as always, his talk was great. I believe the man could sell a snake to a family of mice. Josh Wurman's talk was good as well, I caught most of it when he presented up at NCAR at an AMS meeting in the early fall. He did have some new information and imagery from the June 5th LaGrange Tornado which I had not seen and was very impressed with.

For lunch, I joined a large group that headed over to Northfield. We ate at a place called Jim 'N Nick's BBQ which was delicious. I spent most of the lunch listening to a couple savvy veterans talk shop. Sometimes it's just good to shut your mouth and listen. They had a lot of interesting things to say.

Back at the conference, the afternoon included talks by Steve Hodanish and Tim Samaras (who filled in for Mike Bettes from The Weather Channel since he was unable to make it), Dr. Howie Bluestein and Erik Rasmussen, all of which I enjoyed.

The banquet dinner was decent and Dr. Greg Forbes' keynote speech was as well and then we all enjoyed video night. There was an ample amount of hijinx throughout the day which marked it as one of the most fun in memory, but I'm not here to talk about that.

Unfortunately, I missed a couple of the Sunday morning talks, but did catch Greg Stumpf and Dr. Forbes again.

All in all, I would say that I enjoyed this convention more than any of the previous. The talks were all very insightful and the social aspects of the weekend definitely made for some fun memories.

I know this is kind of a cheap write-up of the conference, but I figure most everyone was there for the talks anyhow and if you weren't, you should attend next year! My main point was to say that I had a great time and I'm grateful for Tim and Roger's hard work that makes this convention a reality year after year. Next year I resolve to take more notes!

Dann