Ingredients for a thunderstorm:
Moisture, instability & lift.
0Z Monday (Sunday night at 5PM MDT) SFC Td, CAPE, 500mb winds
So, I chased some weak convection out on the plains in January, but finally it looks as if the first *real* chase is upon us. The GooF has been consistent with a nice trough digging through the Rockies next weekend. The ECMWF is still a touch behind the GooF here, but it's getting closer to alignment. As of now, this certainly looks to be a chaseable situation and the if I had to commit based on today's information, I would be in. So, we'll be watching as the days click closer and the models hopefully align. Right now, NW Kansas looks great, but it seems that in the past couple of years, these early setups seem to head a bit south and a bit slower as the time gets closer. So it wouldn't surprise me if we end up a bit further south and a day later! But we'll see!
... it's time to dust out those cobwebs. Let the circus begin.
Chase forecast update 3, for March 19
4 days ago