The One That Got Away

From my post last night:

The models just haven't resolved anything worth chasing. The distance involved trumps any desire to see what develops. If it was local (meaning the EaTexPan or WeOk), yeah, I'd probably head out and have fun, but a 500 mile drive... no way José! Even the cold core in Kansas just isn't enough to bite on.

Ouch. This one hurts. In all fairness, though, the models just didn't show me what I wanted to see to make the drive all the way down. It was inconsistency... it was not the shear profile I was looking for.

You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who was forecasting anything more than a brief spin-up today, so I don't feel too bad I guess. Congratulations to Johnathan Skinner who just so happened to be staying with friends in Elk City last night! He told me that it just so happened to be right where he was targeting, so that worked out VERY well for him. Undoubtedly, we would have met up with him at some point and time today, but there is a long list of "if's" that I could get into tonight.

Anyway, we'll leave it at that for now.

So, two other things.

Today at work, I spent a good deal of time on new product creation. I wanted to make a CAPE product that had CIN overlaid on it, basically blocking out the CAPE when the CIN is strong enough. In the example below, the CIN (pink-purple) is opaque at -100J/kg. At values between 0 to -100, it is translucent, thus allowing you to see the CAPE(blue-green-yellow) below it.

The CAPE is translucent below 200J/kg or so and the blue colors stop at about 500J/kg where they switch to green. Yellow is 1500-2500J/kg and above that (but not shown) it goes to orange and red and finally a light (not bright) pink at about 5000J/kg.

I put the parameters (in this case the 21Z valid time from today's NAM 18Z run) with IR and VIS sat images.

CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A MUCH LARGER VIEW!!!!





Note: These images were created using IPS Meteostar's LEADS software. Interested parties in the software may refer here: http://www.meteostar.com/company/contact.html

Though I work there, I'm not here to sell per se. I just wanted to show you how awesome we can do stuff! Anyway, interested in your thoughts on the products...




And finally, I decided to pull the trigger on an HD video camera. I've been looking for about a year now and figured it was finally time. I decided on this one:


Canon Vixia HG 21

http://www.usa.canon.com/consumer/controller?act=ModelInfoAct&fcategoryid=177&modelid=17383

Got a nice deal on a barely used one for about $650. I'm hoping it will pay for itself over the course of the year!

I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who has this camera. Thoughts?

Anyway, that's it for tonight. I'm still feeling a little ill for missing that storm today and dumping a bunch of money into a camera.

Congrats to all who bagged on today. Thank goodness no one was hurt.

Dann.

March 8th Severe Weather Discussion - Final Update

The models just haven't resolved anything worth chasing. The distance involved trumps any desire to see what develops. If it was local (meaning the EaTexPan or WeOk), yeah, I'd probably head out and have fun, but a 500 mile drive... no way José! Even the cold core in Kansas just isn't enough to bite on. With that said, I've asked for the day off of work already, so I'm not expected. I might go in and work on some projects I don't usually have time for and keep an eye out locally. The 4kmWRF precip model is showing some activity on the Palmer tomorrow near dark. I might be interested if some small hail can develop or if there is some good lightning.

That, my friends, is it.

... two weeks of watching this system. Wow. I'm a little disappointed, but I'm sure my wallet won't mind.

Dann.

March 8th Severe Weather Discussion - Sunday Update

Well, the models still aren't quite aligned, much to my dismay. The GFS is being more progressive with the system, shifting what I would choose as a target about 100 miles further east. The NAM parameters lose a little strength from the 0Z run last night. The area of interest remains unchanged, though I would push the northern limit of the northern target a tad to the south.

I'm really on the fence on this one but trending toward not going. Mr. Tony Laubach helped me dissect the cost of the trip (which I usually ignore such that it not impede my decision)

With the 18Z run (NAM) out, things look even less exciting, so I'm trending toward no. I suppose the final decision will come out at 10PM tonight when the 0Z runs are in.

That's it for now. More tonight.

Dann.

March 8th Severe Weather Discussion

Because I feel like I've already wasted enough of my life over this event, I'm going to keep it simple.

I don't see anything remotely salvageable about Sunday the 7th, so let's just file that one. Now, March 8th...

Oh, this one is agonizing! Finally the models aligned ... and then they all took a collective snakeHIcross on the setup. It was certainly worse this morning, but looks a tad better tonight with the 0Z runs. I'm going to ignore the GooF and present to you some parameters from the NAM:(click on the image for a larger version)

Here we have 500mb/sfcTd/ThetaE/CAPE/CIN.

I see three main areas of action.

1) The "cold core" (Meade, Kansas)
Shear is great, instability and moisture are okay. Cloudcover and previous precipitation could be a problem.


2) The "boundary" (Texola, TX/OK)
Shear and instability are good enough for supes. Inhibition could be an issue with relatively warm Pacific air mainlining over from the west. The area of action looks rather narrow as well. The composite reflectivity is generating a "cell" in that area.


3) The "zone unknown".
Well, it's just further south and I'm not going to make that trip and don't know anyone from these parts that will, so let's just pretend it's not there.


Both of the first two areas are worth watching and you can bet I'll be up staring at the 12Z runs in the morning. Given tonight's parameters, I'd be at least up for the cold core setup. We'll see what temptation brings in the morning.

Dann

March 5, 7-9 Chase Forecast Thursday Update

March 5th
My forecast remains unchanged. Please see previous forecast for details. Here's what the 4.0KM WRF NMM precip forecast has for 0Z (5PM MST):


You know, this really makes me cry. I've been monitoring this in the models for the last week or so and was just unable to secure the day off from work. I WAS able to get a couple days off early next week for the "larger" system coming out of the mountains. There is been a lot of inconsistency in the models on this one, especially with the GFS which seems to shift placement by thousands of miles every 12 hours. Tune in tomorrow morning to see what happens next. And with that:

March 7-8
I don't want to talk about it.

Dann.

Severe Weather/Chase Forecast March 5, 7-8

Friday, March 5th
I have been watching this shortwave (which at this point is a bit more than a shortwave) coming through in the March4-5 time period (according to the GFS/ensemble) for more than a week now. Originally, it looked as if the best energy would come out in the panhandles. Moisture looked meager at best but there was just enough instability and wind shear to get something on the low-end of severe going. Anyway, now the GFS and NAM have pretty much come into agreement on the solution of the system as it ejects. It looks like a surface low should form up in northeastern Colorado with elongated troughing on the lee side of the Rockies from Wyoming through southern Colorado. Moisture return on the NAM is a bit higher than the GFS and I still question the values, but we'll see. Both models have dryline near the Colorado-Kansas border and slowly push it eastward as the day progresses. I don't doubt that we'll see some elevated convection along the Footies and the Palmer during the afternoon but any decent, surface-based convection will center along the convergence of the dryline. Available energy may top 500J/kg and there will certainly be enough lift for storms. The shear profiles on the soupy-side support rotating updrafts, so I wouldn't be *surprised* to see a severe report or two, be that a brief tornado or some hail or maybe some wind late late as the shorty ejects. I would actually like to chase this setup (call it early-season exuberance) but I am unable to secure the necessary time off of work. I thought I might be able to squeak out at 3PM,but given the models' push to have the moisture discontinuity out in KS, I actually don't think that would give me enough time. So, I'll watch. The NAM's reflectivity parameter shows an MCS-ish conglomeration after dark, which I can see given the ejection of the (short)wave from the mountains.

If anyone is heading out and needs a bit of nowcasting, let me know. Here's a bit of a mesoscale target forecast for 5PM MST on Friday:


Sunday-Monday, March 7-8
The GFS and ECMWF are still not aligned on this setup, the ECMWF being a bit behind the GooF still. Can I just say that this one has been chaotic? Run to run consistency just hasn't really been there, which makes it tough too since a nice deep trough like this (with moisture ahead of it) really starts to pique interest.

Anyway, let's talk about the GFS. Synoptically, the trough starts to eject from the mountains on Sunday with 50-60kt jet creeping up the high plains. By 12Z on Monday, the closed upper level low finally appears in the OK panhandle. At this time, the trough stops digging and completely levels out, the jet into it becoming zonal. By 0Z Tuesday (Monday night), the upper low is sitting over eastern Kansas while, as the jet blasts zonally through Oklahoma.

At the surface, the LLJ kicks back in by Saturday night and starts to advect a lot of moisture up onto the high plains. As the trough emerges, a surface low forms along the Palmer Divide in Eastern Colorado. As time passes, the surface low heads southeast and is already stacked by 0Z Tuesday.

As of now, Monday looks a lot more boring than it did this morning, but Sunday holds *a little* promise (about as much or slightly more than Friday). The model resolves a bit of instability (500J/kg-ish) along the dryline from Colorado all the way down into Texas. The best instability is found in the Lamesa-Midland area at 0Z on Monday and there is equivalent wind shear (as compared to a more northern target) and better moisture.

So, 96 hours out, I've put up a comparison of what I believe to be the northern and southern targets. (Lamar, Colorado / Midland, Texas)

Panel left to right:
- 500mb winds/heights
- SFC dewpoints, winds, mslp
- CAPE (max 0-70agl)
- CIN (max 0-70agl)
- Lifted Index, mslp


Lamar, Colorado sounding (0Z Monday)


Midland, Texas sounding (0Z Monday)

Finally, on Monday, I've really lost any hope that anything aside from a marginal cold core event will unfold. I'm sure well see some scattered sub-severe convection move through Texas into the jungle, but none of it looks all that great. There is talk about a cold core event in Kansas and that may bear watching, but with diffuse surface boundaries and the surface low south of the 500mb low, it's definitely not a *classic* setup More info on Cold Core setups

I think that will be it for tonight. I'll try and update tomorrow, especially on Friday's event and definitely expect an update on Sunday's event Friday (if not tomorrow as well.

Dann.

Graphics imported from twisterdata.com

Meet Me At The Oasis

Ingredients for a thunderstorm:

Moisture, instability & lift.

0Z Monday (Sunday night at 5PM MDT) SFC Td, CAPE, 500mb winds

So, I chased some weak convection out on the plains in January, but finally it looks as if the first *real* chase is upon us. The GooF has been consistent with a nice trough digging through the Rockies next weekend. The ECMWF is still a touch behind the GooF here, but it's getting closer to alignment. As of now, this certainly looks to be a chaseable situation and the if I had to commit based on today's information, I would be in. So, we'll be watching as the days click closer and the models hopefully align. Right now, NW Kansas looks great, but it seems that in the past couple of years, these early setups seem to head a bit south and a bit slower as the time gets closer. So it wouldn't surprise me if we end up a bit further south and a day later! But we'll see!

... it's time to dust out those cobwebs. Let the circus begin.

Dann.