Saturday, November 28, 2009

Super Typhoon Nida Possibly The Deepest Tropical Cyclone On Record

As Super Typhoon Nida (26W) continues to churn in the Philippine Sea northwest of the Northern Mariana Islands and south of the Volcano Islands (Iwo/Jima) with 140kt (161mph) winds, questions remain as to the exact maximum intensity of this storm. Unlike in the Atlantic Ocean where hurricane hunter aircraft send dropsondes into tropical cyclones to ascertain intensity, storms in the West Pacific must be analyzed by remote sensing technologies. One of the manners in which this is done is by using the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) (more information here) According to this technique at approximately 2332Z on November 25th, Nida bottomed out at 869.3mb which would move the storm past Super Typhoon Tip as the deepest tropical cyclone on record (Tip was measured at 870mb).

It's tough to tell whether there will ever be a consensus on this as some of the same questions (apparently) were raised during the reign of Cyclone Monica north of Australia in 2006. Any way you look at it though, Nida is one hell of a storm!

Currently, the storm is a little lost. Various models and forecast agencies are taking her to the west over the next 24 hours. JTWC is recurving the storm to the northwest, though ... which is contrary to most other forecasts. I actually agree with them given the overall synoptic pattern, so we'll see. If they're right, the storm will pass between South Iwo Jima (the southernmost of the Volcano Islands) and Farallon de Pajaros (the northernmost of the Northern Mariana Islands), hopefully harmlessly. If the models/agencies are correct, then who knows! Given that the storm is fairly stationary, however, the upwelling generated by the storm should slowly weaken it.

Here is some current information on the storm:

JTWC's track

JMA's track

The storm briefly restrengthened after an eyewall replacement cycle yesterday to maximum intensity estimates of 899mb(ADT) and 150kt (JTWC). Here is a vapor image at the time:

Other archived imagery of the storm:

MODIS image from early on November 25th

... and this one just happens to be my favorite image of the storm:

Other discussion regarding the storm:
CIMSS Satellite Blog
NASA Hurricanes/Tropical Cyclones
Nida on Storm Track
Nida on Storm2K
ADT Intensity History

Finally, back here along the Footies, we enjoys above 60ºF (Thursday and Friday). It has cooled today with a weak front sweeping south along the Range. We're sitting at about 50ºF here right now and I don't expect it to get any higher. Though we may see a bit of light snow tonight and tomorrow, I'm not expecting much accumulation. What I am *not* looking forward too is the inverted air mass which should stick around for the next few days. The pattern doesn't look to allow much in the way of significant downsloping to help mix out the cold pool.

Found this image on the MODIS site today ... it's from the snow storm that moved through the Central Rockies on November 16th (image is from the 17th). Click for a larger view!


Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Typhoon Nida Strengthens South Of Guam

Typhoon Nida is giving us quite the snow in the Western Pacific. Winds are now up to 100kt (115mph) and pressure is down to 948mb. The storm continues to move off to the northwest. The near environment is conducive to continuing strengthening but not too far to the north is an area of very dry air. The storm is way above forecast at the moment as the eye tightened rapidly today, so we'll have to see what happens with the next advisory. Wait, scratch that ... as I was typing, the new advisory was issued in light of current analysis. They're bringing it to a 125kt SuperTyphoon before all is said and done. I'll definitely be keeping my eye on it!

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression 27W is done for, nothing much left but some rain.

This area is still being watched for tropical cyclone development:

And finally, in the Southern Indian Ocean, Moderate Tropical Storm Bongani is skirting the northern tip of Madagascar, headed into the Mozambique Channel while slowly losing strength.

Back on the homefront, we had some interesting weather yesterday. On the backside of a system moving into the Central Plains, we got some nice jet-induced convection over the area. The CAA was pretty fierce too, but it was the vertical clouds that kept my attention. Though I didn't personally experience any snow, there were a few showers scattered about.

Should have a dry Thanksgiving around these parts.

Dann Cianca
(Since the overall picture hasn't changed much, I am not including overview tropical satellite imagery today).

Monday, November 23, 2009

Three Storms In The West Pacific And 02S Bongani Moves Through The Outer Seychelles

We have a lot of activity in the tropics! I'll let the images speak for themselves. Click on any for a larger view.

Dann Cianca
Overview tropical satellite imagery provided courtesy of IPS Meteostar.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

The Western Pacific Heats Up- One Depression, Another On The Way

Things are getting fairly active in the Western Pacific Ocean:

26W looks less impressive than yesterday, shredding its main convective cluster, but the circulation remains. Forecast is still taking it to typhoon strength within the next 24-48hours.

Another area is being monitored for tropical cyclone development. This storm has persisted off the east coast of Mindanao (Philippines) for the past couple of days and is expected amp up on organization over the next few days.

And finally, 96S is still looking strong in the Southern Indian Ocean. The system has passed south of the Seychelles and is continuing westward movement.

Back on the home front, we had a good turnout at CONVERGENCE! last night. Had about twenty people show up which was cool. I know I had a lot of fun!

Weatherwise, we had a weak cold front move through last night. It's keeping temperatures down about 10ºF from yesterday. Could see a little light snow tomorrow but I'm not expecting much in the way of accumulation.

Dann Cianca
Overview tropical satellite imagery provided courtesy of IPS Meteostar.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Tropical Cyclone Formation In Micronesia And Info On November CONVERGENCE!

It's been fairly quiet along the Front Range here for the last week or so. Temps have climbed up into the 50's most days this week aside from the occasion cool push which makes its way down along the Footies. There's still a good amount of snow and ice in the shady areas, so I'm hoping for some consistent downslope to eat it away. It looks like it will have to wait until next week, though, as we might see a little moisture reach the ground after another weak push comes through tonight and into tomorrow. The models don't bring us much else in the next 180 hours, so that will be good. For the record, I enjoy a big snow but prefer warm weather in between, especially now that I spend a lot of time running outside. I'd prefer to not have to run on ice.

Tonight will be the November edition of our CONVERGENCE! meetings. For those of you who are unaway, CONVERGENCE! is a gathering for people who enjoy the weather. This can include people who chase/spot, are educated/work in the field, or just enjoy talking about weather. I found that I had separate groups of friends who though came from different walks of life, all had weather in common. If you're interested intending, please consider yourself invited!

CONVERGENCE! (November 2009)
Saturday, November 22nd 2009
Old Chicago (Bar/Restaurant)
1415 Market Street
Denver, Colorado

Maybe I'll see you tonight?

Okay, now on to the tropics! As I said in a recent post, for whatever reason, my interest in the tropics heats up near the end of the Atlantic Season and usually lasts through the Southern Hemispheric Seasons. The most activity we're seeing now is in the Western Pacific right now, however.

JTWC has decided that 94W has warranted a formation alert and I would have to agree.

We also still have one area worth watching in the Southern Indian Ocean.

And finally, I just thought I'd share one of the images selected on the MODIS Website as an "image of the day". It shows snowcover from a recent storm that moved across Ontario. Very cool, if you ask me. Don't forget to click for the larger version!

Dann Cianca
Overview tropical satellite imagery provided courtesy of IPS Meteostar.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Anja Gone But Other Areas Bear Watching

The once powerful 01S Anja is nothing but a memory at this point; completely extra-tropical and being escorted away in the flow. She maxed out at 115 knots, which would be a Category 4 storm on our Saffir-Simpson scale. The photo below comes from the MODIS website. It was taken near Anja's maximum intensity and should DEFINITELY be clicked on for maximum enjoyment.

There is another area worth noting in the Southern Indian Ocean as well. An wave of storms (95S Invest) is becoming more organized by the minute along the same latitude the spawned Anja. This area of storms is a bit further west, though, which should concern the resort islands of Reunion and Mauritius. I wouldn't be surprised to see tropical cyclone development with this system over the next couple of days, so I will watch it closely.

Also, a couple of areas are being watched in the Western Pacific, one notably close the equator.

(You can click on any image for a larger view).


Monday, November 16, 2009

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 01S Anja Probably At Peak Intensity

Anja is currently sitting at 115kt (134mph) and 937mb and is moving to the south. Latest imagery shows the eye starting to fill in again. The storm is moving into cooler waters and will not affect any land aside from some higher surf in Rodrigues to her west. Eventually, she will convert to an extra-tropical cyclone over open water.


Sunday, November 15, 2009

2009 - November 14 & 15 - Denver Area Winter Storm

Well, aside from some brief convective snow showers that drifted off the mountains this afternoon, the snow was said and done by late morning. All in all, I received about 7.5" at my apartment which is around the 8" I forecast, so I'll definitely take that!

A few photos? Don't mind if I do!

Out my bedroom window. Not a bad scene to wake up to!

Looking east down East Peakview Avenue

The local Weather Service hasn't issued a map of snowfall just yet, but it looks like 5-10" was common in the metro, 8-15" in the Footies, and 2-8" on the plains.

Current conditions at Greenwood Park (Centennial), Colorado: 22.3ºF