Severe weather very likely today in Western Montana. Approaching trough will interact with ridiculous amounts of moisture (ridiculous for this area, anyway... dewpoints between 55F and 65F!!) and thunderstorms will be widespread. Latest RUC run (14Z) is showing up to 4000J/kg of CAPE over the Butte area by this evening! ETANAMWRF is only showing 2000J/kg ... but that's still a lot. Shear profiles are favoring supercells over the less complicated topography. Everything is in place for a major hail/wind event in Western Montana. If supercells develop and persist, tornadoes are not out of the question, though I don't think likely.
I'll try and update a bit later ... but now it's off to the Fourth of July parade ...
PS: Barack Obama is not going to be in the parade as planned ... due to security reasons. haha He'll just be watching.
Chase forecast update 7 - for May 16
3 days ago