Monday, June 30, 2008

20080630 Wx Discussion I (1715Z)

Looks like another dry day here over the Front Range. Boring.

In Montana, some excitement could be had as high temperatures today will approach record levels. The NWS in Missoula is forecasting 93ºF in Butte today. I can see that and possibly a degree higher. The record stands at 92ºF.

Eureka and Libby, MT both saw 99ºF yesterday, topping out the state's high. In southwest Montana, Whitehall's RAWS station touched 97ºF. The same airmass is in place today and with temperatures not reaching as low as the previous morning, the thermometer is already climbing quite higher today than at the same time yesterday.

Butte, for example was 76ºF as of the 17Z ob yesterday. Today, it's 81º.

Could be a hot day. Will be tracking for records.


Friday, June 27, 2008

20080627 Wx Discussion II (2240Z)

The cap is very strong today. We need surface temps to rise, oh, 10ºF or more ... or if the 700mb temps decreased by the same amount, that would be nice too.

There is a little convection north of Pike's Peak and along the foot hills, but it's really high based and not very strong.


20080627 Wx Discussion I (1625Z)

Interesting setup today. The models don't seem to be handling the moisture very well. (Edit: The 12Z NAM-WRF being the exception). As I'm typing this, a surge of moisture is advecting into the area from the north-northeast. Dewpoints in Greeley and Fort Collins have climbed into the mid 40's and suspect we'll see a decent increase in the metro area as well (where Td's currently reside in the 30's).

Winds should take on a more northwesterly component today and I'm hoping we'll see southeasterly winds on the southern slopes of the Palmer Divide. Given this setup, I can see a Palmer Divide supercell forming (maybe a bit of wishcasting on my part) and rolling to the southeast. We have enough shear for this type of storm and the divide will provide a good place for upslope and convergence, negating the generally capped atmosphere in the area.

I'll be keeping me eyes on things all day. One thing's for certain, when this moisture surge reaches the divide within the next 45 minutes, we'll see some cumulus go up.


Thursday, June 19, 2008

2008 Storm Chase V (Preview)

Went out for a little impromptu chase just east of the Metro area today. Ended up focusing on lightning and got some nice ones. Here are a few samples ... a full chase log will be up eventually.


Tuesday, June 17, 2008


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