Tropical Cyclone Gael Twirls in the South Indian

I can hardly contain myself. It looks as if I might actually be chasing storms in February this year ... early February. I'm keeping my eyes on the latest model runs and I won't want to get into specifics just yet ... but hopefully sometime late in the afternoon on Sunday, I'll be hearing thunder. I will be doing a chase day forecast in the coming days.

Active Tropical Weather

Indian Ocean

13S Gael - Gael can't quite seem to get organized, which is good if you live in the vicinity. A slow intensification is forecast with continued westward movement.

Northwest Pacific Ocean

Southwest Pacific Ocean

Dann.
Currently at Denver (Hampden Heights), Colorado: 41ºF Clear.

Overview tropical satellite imagery used with permission; courtesy of IPS Meteostar Inc. Tropical tracking information from Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Annotations are made by the author of this blog. Click for larger images.
**NOTE: If you've reached this page due to a search result, the most current tropical information can be found in the latest post and not necessarily the post you are reading. Visit http://blog.bigskyconvection.com/ for the most recent post.

Key West Supercell & Tropical Cyclone Gael

Alright, first off, I am getting excited about this coming weekend. While the GFS has not been too reliable out past a few days lately, I definitely have my hopes up for some severe on Sunday or Monday. It's too early to call targets or anything like that, but I am watching the latest runs very carefully ... especially since I have Sundays and Mondays off. I feel like a man released from prison ... and I hate to say it, but any port in the storm ... or should that read "any storm in the port?" Maybe just ... any storm will do.


Ahem, I digress.


I wanted to share with you a great radar image from the Florida Keys yesterday. You can see a beautiful supercell return on the reflectivity. While this cell didn't earn a tornado warning, a special marine advisory was issued because there was a waterspout ... on the water (sorry, tornado joke).

Active Tropical Weather

Indian Ocean

13S Gael - As suspected, Gael has strengthened and at least earned a name. The storm hasn't undergone rapid intensification by any means, but it surviving and slowly gaining steam. Current forecast is for Gael to continue west and strengthen slowly.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

Still keeping an eye on the remnants of Ellie. As of now, the surface circulation remains intact. If it emerges into the Gulf of Carpentaria, there is a chance of reintensification.

Northwest Pacific Ocean

Finally some action in the Northern Hemisphere! This low-latitude area of convection is slowly drifting to the west and worth keeping an eye on.


Dann.
Currently at Denver (Hampden Heights), Colorado: 34ºF Clear.

Radar and overview tropical satellite imagery used with permission; courtesy of IPS Meteostar Inc. Tropical tracking information and additional satellite imagery from Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Annotations are made by the author of this blog. Click for larger images.
**NOTE: If you've reached this page due to a search result, the most current tropical information can be found in the latest post and not necessarily the post you are reading. Visit http://blog.bigskyconvection.com/ for the most recent post.

Groundhog Day: As Close As You Can Get To A "Weather" Holiday

Well, ol' Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today which according to weather lore means we will be seeing six more weeks of winter. Is it storm season yet? Speaking of storms, there were a couple of nice supercells that rolled through the Florida Keys today. That was neat. Also, notice that I have put up a link to the National Storm Chasers Convention on the right-hand margin. Check it out!


Active tropical weather:


13S (unnamed) - As I suspected yesterday, this area has been upgraded to a tropical cyclone. If named, it should be "Gael" and I expect this to happen in the next advisory.



Dann.
Currently at Denver (Hampden Heights), Colorado: 44ºF Partly cloudy (high clouds), winds NW, ~5kts.

Overview tropical satellite imagery used with permission; courtesy of IPS Meteostar Inc. Tropical tracking information from Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Annotations are made by the author of this blog. Click for larger images.
**NOTE: If you've reached this page due to a search result, the most current tropical information can be found in the latest post and not necessarily the post you are reading. Visit http://blog.bigskyconvection.com/ for the most recent post.

SPC Upgrades and Ellie Makes Landfall

I found the above graphic and thought I'd share ... the season is just around the corner!



The official forecast for today was "cloudy with flurries, high in the low 30's" Well, there was nary a cloud in the sky today and the temperature touched 50ºF. Many forecasts changed this morning when it was realized that there were no clouds.

Anyway.

I was checking out the SPC page today and noticed a new addition. The storm reports page has been changed to include additional content.



I thought that the Severe Weather Plot page was pretty cool (preview below)



Currently in the tropics:



12S Ellie




And elsewhere ...


Dann.
Currently at Denver (Hampden Heights), Colorado: 28ºF Mostly cloudy (high clouds), calm.

Overview tropical satellite imagery used with permission; courtesy of IPS Meteostar Inc. Tropical tracking information and additional satellite imagery from Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Annotations are made by the author of this blog. Click for larger images.
**NOTE: If you've reached this page due to a search result, the most current tropical information can be found in the latest post and not necessarily the post you are reading. Visit http://blog.bigskyconvection.com/ for the most recent post.

12P Ellie

Earlier this week, the GFS was resolving what would be a monster Nor'Easter for the East Coast early next week. Since then, it has progressively put cyclogenesis further off the coast, and not having the storm impact the east as much as once was thought.

Meanwhile, whispers are abound of a possibly chaseable southern plains severe event next week ... I'm definitely keeping my eyes on that one.

Tropical Weather:



12P Ellie - This storm has been watched for the past few days, hanging off the coast of Australia. It has had impressive surface circulation and for whatever reason, as it is now impacting the coast, it has been quickly upgraded to a Category 1 Cyclone. (equivalent to a tropical storm at 35kts) JTWC hasn't been warning on this storm just yet (as I write this), but Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has, with the warning located here. (Forecast graphic below)


I've also included a sweep of the Cairns WF 100 C Band Radar and annotated the approximate position of Ellie's center of circulation.


And in the Southern Indian Ocean, we have a nice area of investigation. There is no official "formation alert" on this storm yet, but it sure "looks" good. You can see the impressive ball of convection and the circulation of the lower clouds.



Dann.
Currently at Denver (Hampden Heights), Colorado: 63ºF Mostly cloudy (high clouds), winds south, roughly 5kt.

Overview tropical satellite imagery used with permission; courtesy of IPS Meteostar Inc. Tropical tracking information and radar imagery provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Annotations are made by the author of this blog. Click for larger images.
**NOTE: If you've reached this page due to a search result, the most current tropical information can be found in the latest post and not necessarily the post you are reading. Visit http://blog.bigskyconvection.com/ for the most recent post.

Hettie

Let's start with the tropics today as there isn't much else going on. Here is the current overview:


11S Hettie - The only active cyclone at the moment. I predicted yesterday that it wouldn't make it to named-storm strength, but I underestimated it. It still doesn't look great, but the surface circulation is pretty tight.






I added the following image because it is interesting to see the convection completely displaced from the center of circulation. This was from earlier today.



The following image is from 91P Invest. I included it only because you can see the low level circulation just coming onshore.





Finally, Chad Cowan compiled the year's 10 best tornado videos. You can check them out on his blog on ChaseTheStorms.com.

Dann.
Currently at Denver (Hampden Heights), Colorado: 28ºF Partly cloudy and calm.
Overview tropical satellite imagery used with permission; courtesy of IPS Meteostar Inc. Tropical cyclone tracking information and some satellite imagery from Navy/NRL Tropical Cyclone Page. Additional satellite imagery from JTWC. Annotations are made by the author of this blog. Click for larger images.
**NOTE: If you've reached this page due to a search result, the most current tropical information can be found in the latest post and not necessarily the post you are reading. Visit http://blog.bigskyconvection.com/ for the most recent post.

Colorado Snow Totals

The sun! It came out today ... and it was kind of nice. Temperatures crept up toward freezing today, which was nice. Elsewhere, especially to the north and west, it was quite cold. Wisdom, Montana bottomed out at -35ºF while in Wyoming, both Greybull and Shirley Basin touched -37ºF. Brr!

The tally is in on Colorado snowfall. The local NWS office posted the following map today:


Currently in the tropics:


It seems that 98P lost some steam today, so I would wager it wouldn't quite make it to a named system. There are a couple of areas of thunderstorms on the northern Australian coast that bare watching. Otherwise, it's pretty quiet.

Satellite imagery used with permission; courtesy of IPS Meteostar Inc. Click for larger images. Annotations are made by the author of this blog.

NOTE: If you've reached this page due to a search result, the most current tropical information can be found in the latest post and not necessarily the post you are reading. Visit http://blog.bigskyconvection.com/ for the most recent post.

Dann.
Currently at Denver (Hampden Heights), Colorado: 23ºF Clear