Wednesday, March 18, 2009

22S Ilsa, 21P Ken and Chase Forecast: 03/22, 03/23

The naysayers are out in full force again! Maybe I'm a "yaysayer" because I know that I'll be able to chase the upcoming forecast setup. Either way, things are looking good. Most of the attention is on Monday as we have a nice, deep trough carving its way eastward with a bit of a negative tilt to it. The models are showing some great shear, decent moisture & instability, and some good dynamic forcing in place. The word "squall line" often comes into play in situations like this ... especially by the naysayers. However, I think we will slow down a bit and see some supercells before we get wiped out. Now, here's the kicker:

I think Sunday is the sleeper day. The GFS, which has been underestimating instability all year long, is painting a nice window in Nebraska and Kansas. The only caveat is the inhibition. I believe that the western edge of the cap might break and though the shear won't be nearly as good as the next day, we could still get some explosive, rotating updrafts. Hail, isolated tornadoes look like a plausible threat. The SPC isn't even talking about this day but I'll definitely be keeping my eyes on it.

Looks like I'll be heading out for both days. Still trying to get everything coordinated at this point, but if anyone is looking to get out, don't be a stranger!

Also ... looking like there might be some thunderstorms in the forecast for Western Montana on Saturday!

Active Tropical Weather
Indian Ocean

South Pacific Ocean

Currently at Denver (Hampden Heights), Colorado: 46ºF Partly cloud (cirrocumulus).

Overview tropical satellite imagery used with permission; courtesy of IPS Meteostar Inc. Tropical tracking information and some satellite imagery from Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Navy/NRL Tropical Cyclone Page. Some annotations on imagery are made by the author of this blog. Click for larger images.
**NOTE: If you've reached this page due to a search result, the most current tropical information can be found in the latest post and not necessarily the post you are reading. Visit for the most recent post.


Sean Mullins said...

I totally agree with Sunday's potential. we will be out for sure, at least shooting lightning and some time lapse stuff. there is a little H5 impulse that will skirt the Ks/Ne border region so hopefully that will get some things going.

Dann Cianca said...

I'm definitely hoping so. I'm wishing these next days will fly by so I can narrow down a target for both days! Monday could be all over the place. Anyway, my number is 303-868-3605 if you want to coordinate.

Anonymous said...

Here in Rock Springs We're going to see a chance for thunderstorms too on Saturday and Sunday so it looks like spring isn't to far off. Hmmm hopefully I'll be able to hear some thunder.


Dann Cianca said...

This system looks ... vigorous!

sknr31 said...

funny u all mentioned this because I agree with Mullins & Cianca, I think Sunday might be overlooked...I have a feeling I might head out for the Lightning aroma before the windy blowing rain/snow mix aroma

Dann Cianca said...

Skinner! Get out on the plains!! Man, this mornings runs were garbage ... but we're looking a little better this afternoon ...

Dann Cianca said...

I meant to say MONDAY looks better ... Sunday looks worse.