Thursday, March 05, 2009

Saturday Chase Forecast & 18P Hamish

Well, well, well, it looks like I might be eating my words:

"I'm not too excited about this weekend's chances of severe further to the south and east. I was toying with the idea of organizing a trip but unless something spectacular looks to form further to the north and west, I'll be enjoying Twister night with friends from work on Friday and Convergence! on Saturday."

While it still doesn't look "spectacular", the models have been on a better trend as of late giving us a nice bulls eye of instability, shear, and moisture in a Great Bend - Pratt - Wichita - McPherson quadrant. The consistency of the models hasn't been ideal and like the previous chase, the NAM/WRF has more confidence in a severe solution than does the GFS. Right now, I would say chances of making the trip to be above 50%. I've got Michael Carlson ready to go as well and we both are short of commitments this weekend (at least now). The latest NAM/WRF has failed to initiate precipitation in our target region which has me a bit worried. However, the cap doesn't appear insurmountable with the amount of instability in place. We'll have to keep an eye on future model runs. I'll try and update once more tomorrow night with the official plan. Stay tuned. (Also, we may have a seat available if anyone is looking to get out.)

Oh, and Twister night got canceled. I also might skip out on Convergence! this weekend, though it will still be happening thanks to Marta Nelson. If you're planning on attending, give me a call and I'll point you in the right direction.

Active Tropical Weather
South Pacific Ocean
18P Hamish - We have ourselves a cyclone! She's a beaut'! Though, I would be a little worried if you're on the coast of Australia. This storm is in an area ripe for intensification and the forecast track has it paralleling the coast.

Indian Ocean

Currently at Denver (Hampden Heights), Colorado: 37ºF Clear, winds SSE 15-20kts.

Overview tropical satellite imagery used with permission; courtesy of IPS Meteostar Inc. Tropical tracking information and some satellite imagery from Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Navy/NRL Tropical Cyclone Page. WRF/NAM model information from College of DuPage NEXLAB. Some annotations on imagery are made by the author of this blog. Click for larger images.
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