Wednesday, December 16, 2009

The Montanan Arctic and Laurence The Blind Cyclone

A few notes of interest:

Continued cold weather in Montana... thanks to a nice, deep Arctic airmass that dropped south out of Canada. I've listed the low temperatures in Montana for the past few days. Check posts from last week to see the days prior. The downslope has finally mixed across the plains creating what one could "sort of" call a warm front, but this should allow for most temperatures in Montana to stay above zero for the first time since late November. The only exception may be an area of cold air pooled along the Milk River in north central Montana where temperatures are currently in the single digits.

11th: -19ºF - Simpson 19N
12th: -16ºF - Gold Butte 17N
13th: -22ºF - Opheim 10N
14th: -31ºF - Valentine
15th: -40ºF - Jordan
16th: -37ºF - Westby

In the tropics...

... things are fairly quiet. 06S Laurence is now inland in wild northwestern Australia and back down around 65kts will continuing to disipate. This was an interesting storm as at its max intensity of 115kt, it did not have an eye, or at least not one that was apparent on satellite.

And elsewhere, I would comment on Monday's severe weather event in the deep south and how SPC missed the boat, but apparently it's not okay to criticize those responsible for warning the public of threatening weather information, even when it is in fact tax dollars that pay their salaries.


Monday, December 14, 2009

06S Laurence Skimming Australia

... luckily in an almost completely uninhabited area ...


Sunday, December 13, 2009

55kt Tropical Cyclone 04P Mick Making Landfall In Fiji

Radar/Sat imagery below the forecast plot...

More local "Mick" info:

Fiji Meteorological Service
(animated radar imagery found at that site)

Southern Pacific Overview:

Laurence has the potential for rapid development:

Elsewhere in the Indian, North & South:

So yeah, the tropics are a bit active.

Warm here in Denver today ... windy and downslopy.


Thursday, December 10, 2009

Below Zero Temps, A Cloudy Future For Cleo and Big Sky Convection Milestone

Since the blizzard didn't really effect me (except occupationally since we covered it on air at work), I'm going to hit on the cold air that has invaded the Northern Rockies. Frequent readers of this blog realize that I'm rather Montana and Colorado-centric and this entry is no exception.

I have been tracking the temperatures very closely across Montana during the "arctic outbreak" if you will. As shown in the chart below, it's been below zero at some location in Montana for the past twelve days. While very cold, this isn't unprecedented. In fact, I was unable to locate mention of any records being broken. Yes, it can be that cold in Montana sometimes.

10th: -25ºF at Valentine
9th: -35ºF at Dunkirk 19NNE
8th: -37ºF at Cascade 20SSE and at Simpson 6N
7th: -30ºF at Wisdom
6th: -16ºF at West Yellowstone Gate
5th: -17ºF at West Yellowstone Gate
4th: -26ºF at West Yellowstone Gate
3rd: -28ºF at Wisdom
2nd: -31ºF at West Yellowstone Gate
1st: -5ºF at Big Sky 2WNW
30th: -7ºF at West Yellowstone Gate
29th: -8ºF at West Yellowstone Gate

We've been pretty cold in Colorado as well. On the 9th, Denver set a record low of -17ºF, which is pretty cold for this area. The same morning, my thermometer dipped to -7.8ºF, which is the lowest temperature it has recorded in the past two years. It should be noted also that the thermometer is thermally influenced by my apartment building and is located at second story height, above the deepest reaches of the inversion.

Now for something a little warmer. I've been a little busy lately and haven't been able to keep up with all the happenings in the tropics, but we did have a Very Intense Tropical Cyclone (Cleo) in the Southern Indian Ocean this week. The storm peaked at 115kt but has now shed her convection and remains a 45kt storm.

Finally, this blog reached a milestone today with its 20,000th visitor! Thanks everybody for reading and stopping by!


Monday, December 07, 2009

Cleo In The Indian And Thoughts Across The US

Well... an awful lot of noise out there about the storm that is taking shape here in the US. I believe most of the fanfare warranted. Most, but not all. The models are moving this system quickly and thus I don't expect much of an impact here in the Denver metro. Sure, we'll see some snowfall, mostly very light powdery stuff, but I'm just not convinced we'll see a big event. It looks like the storm will come out of the mountains and redevelop out east, sparing us the brunt. Now to the east ... Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa ... well that's a different story. Hope you're all stocked up on provisions!

Elsewhere, VERY cold air will intrude into Montana tonight. Well, it's already there, but the cold axis which brought lows in the -35ºF range throughout most of northern Alberta yesterday will be over Montana tomorrow morning. Some NWS point forecasts have areas in Montana below -40ºF tonight.


Well, let's warm up a bit and talk briefly about Cleo. She's in the Southern Indian Ocean in open water. Given the nice pinhole eye, I wouldn't be surprised to see her amped up a bit more than forecast on the next advisory.

Anyway, that's it for now.