Friday, October 10, 2008

Chase Forecast for Saturday, October 11th

Well, if I had to put money down ... I think we'll see a similar situation to what happened last Sunday. The GFS completely tanked on instability for tomorrow.

The WRF looks a little better though:

I was planning on hitching a ride with Tony, but he's having his doubts. We'll see on the later runs tonight. SPC is still being optimistic, though the words "line segments" are awfully frightening to me. That's what you get when you have TONS of shear like we have tomorrow. They contend that the lack of instability will be made up for by gratuitous upper level support ... but I'd still like to see some better heating.

Instability looks better on Sunday ... but there's also even more shear, plus surface dynamics.

So, I guess it's wait and see ...


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