I was pretty excited about this setup yesterday and the day before. This morning ... not so much. The synoptic features are in place ... we have good shear, moisture, lift ... but heating? That's the big issue here. The models are not giving us any instability (well, there is some, but not much; enough to warrant the trip).
I guess I'll wait and see the later runs, but as of now, I'm thinking this might be a good day to stay home and watch football.
Chase forecast update 7 - for May 16
4 days ago