Sunday, September 21, 2008

Chase Forecast Update

Showers are ongoing across northeastern Colorado right now. Cloudcover associated with the approaching system is also a little daunting. SPC has given us a 2% tornado risk for today, which is chaseable in September. However, the latest RUC run is initializing precipitation in Kansas and Nebraska. I'm a little worried about the mid to upper level winds ... they look to be very strong. We do have favorable directional shear today, especially at the low to mid levels but ... supercells, if they do form, might easily be wiped out with the formation of a linear system. A couple of forecast soundings I created for 3PM today show really low Bulk Richardson Numbers (values between 2 and 5 for the E. Colorado stations I looked at).

I am still going to go out. Not exactly sure what time yet, though ...


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