Hmm ... things are looking very interesting for Wednesday. I'd say chances are (given the current models), 75% certain that I will be making the trip south and east for one last hurrah this year. I know that I've already said that twice before this fall, but one hates to ignore an opportunity. I would also like to keep my SDS symptoms as low as possible throughout hibernation (winter).
So, the GFS and WRF are pretty close in positioning and timing of this system as it moves across the country. The only main difference is instability. I'm wishcasting with the WRF, which resolves much better CAPE and very little capping just before sundown on Wednesday. The forcing is there, the shear is there, the moisture should be there ... but instability? We could get killed with high clouds out ahead of the front. The models are hinting at a good deal of mid to upper level moisture in the area ... clouds? Of course, the could front could speed up and wipe out any fun beforehand anyway. These are the risks at this time of year. Still, one of the possible outcomes is a nice little batch of prefrontal supercells. Both of the surface plots before show the front lagging and combined with the dewpoint charts from the same runs (not shown), a dryline ahead is evident. With the shear in place ... it looks good. This depends on a few factors lining up, though ... timing and cloudcover especially. The forcing could negate the need for heating, but that will be nocturnal event. Yay for squall lines after dark with spinups on the line. Okay, not yay.
I will be watching this very carefully. I came into work today (usually have Mondays off) to work off some hours and give myself the availability of a chase on Wednesday.
Looks like we have two interested parties in going as well ...
Chase forecast update 7 - for May 16
4 days ago