The Weather Service has the Denver area under a Flash Flood Watch again today, which I believe is warranted. The models are having a tough time resolving everything today, with some disagreement pertaining to storm coverage and intensity. One thing I did notice that was different than yesterday though was that we have a good deal more instability to work with. The RUC (which has been overestimating CAPE lately) is showing upwards of 2,000 J/kg. While it's probably not that high (especially due to lack of heating in the metro area due to the alto cumulus layer), we still are dealing with a less-stable atmosphere than yesterday. Couple that with the abundant moisture and the approaching short wave, it should be enough to set off some good rainers today.
In fact, storms have already developed over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide areas today. Even to the east of the city, we have some storms building on convergence zones.
Right now, storms are beginning to eject off of the foothills. While storms usually weaken off of the mountains, we also have a strong outflow boundary moving in from the southeast. This could be enough to really set some storms off, especially if we end up with some good convergence over the metro area. I will be monitoring this situation closely.
The possibility for severe weather exists again today, but mostly in the eastern portion of the state. A storm already put down a tornado in the far southeastern corner of the state (Alzada).
1839 9 NW ALZADA CARTER MT 4511 10455 TWO FUNNELS ENTWINED INTO ONE TOUCHING GROUND (BYZ)
Got to love that description ... hope someone got a photo of that!
Anyway, the same shortwave that is stirring up trouble in Colorado today is a little bit stronger in Montana. There is much more wind shear to work with lending to the probability of organized severe storms. We will probably see a few more supercells today but most storms will be organized in clusters.
Chase forecast update 3, for March 19
4 days ago