I was looking forward to a nice trough digging through the country this coming week. The latest model runs, however, are keeping the energy to the north. I am now less enthusiastic about the prospects.
Meanwhile locally, we could have another good chance for thunderstorms today. The Democratic National Circus is in town, preventing me from gonig out on the observation deck to, well, observe. I don't want to appear to be a sniper or something and get swiss cheesed for looking at the clouds. So, I'll just sit inside in front of my screens and pretend I know what's going on outside. Storms have fired on the foothills again and we're very warm here at the surface in town. We are pretty much sitting at the convective temperature right now, so we'll see if things initiate. Plus, we have an outflow boundary moving in from the south and convergence setting up east of town. So, the ingredients are here and it's just a waiting game. If things do set off today, I don't expect anything much more than some small hail and wind. I don't see the storms getting too organized.
Eastern Montana could be seeing readings over 100ºF tomorrow as the southwesterlies kick up in full force out ahead of the incoming system. We'll see some decent downsloping (compression) off of the Beartooth and the Big Horns.
Chase forecast update 3, for March 19
4 days ago