I am free from work in a few minutes and plan to head out to the plains today to experience some convection. Moisture is lower than the NAM was predicting (as was expected), but is slowly rising. Lamar's Td is up to 37ºF and this is the area I am targeting. I believe with a little more time (heating and evapotranspiration of snowmelt/runoff) and moisture convergence as the surface features move in, we'll see low 40's in the Arkansas River valley near the Kansas border. Lapse rates are great, so we should at least see some convection on the south side of the Palmer Divide this afternoon. Severe weather is unlikely, but I want to be out there to make sure!
Later tonight as the upper level support really moves in, lift will increase, especially into SW KS. Unfortunately the surface will be inverted by then, but elevated storms work just fine for lightning.
I will post occasional updates on Facebook and will be on Spotter Network.
Also looking forward to the drive home tonight... in the snow.
Chase forecast update 7 - for May 16
4 days ago