Sunday, March 07, 2010

March 8th Severe Weather Discussion

Because I feel like I've already wasted enough of my life over this event, I'm going to keep it simple.

I don't see anything remotely salvageable about Sunday the 7th, so let's just file that one. Now, March 8th...

Oh, this one is agonizing! Finally the models aligned ... and then they all took a collective snakeHIcross on the setup. It was certainly worse this morning, but looks a tad better tonight with the 0Z runs. I'm going to ignore the GooF and present to you some parameters from the NAM:(click on the image for a larger version)

Here we have 500mb/sfcTd/ThetaE/CAPE/CIN.

I see three main areas of action.

1) The "cold core" (Meade, Kansas)
Shear is great, instability and moisture are okay. Cloudcover and previous precipitation could be a problem.

2) The "boundary" (Texola, TX/OK)
Shear and instability are good enough for supes. Inhibition could be an issue with relatively warm Pacific air mainlining over from the west. The area of action looks rather narrow as well. The composite reflectivity is generating a "cell" in that area.

3) The "zone unknown".
Well, it's just further south and I'm not going to make that trip and don't know anyone from these parts that will, so let's just pretend it's not there.

Both of the first two areas are worth watching and you can bet I'll be up staring at the 12Z runs in the morning. Given tonight's parameters, I'd be at least up for the cold core setup. We'll see what temptation brings in the morning.


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